Overview, Primary Assumptions, Economic Scoring
The Leviticus 25 Plan activation period is slated for the 5-year period beginning in 2026 and ending in 2030.
1. The Leviticus 25 Plan – Each participating U.S. citizen will receive a $60,000 deposit into a Family Account (FA) and a $30,000 deposit into a Medical Savings Account (MSA).
All U.S. citizens residing in the United States are eligible to participate, contingent upon meeting qualification standards and agreement to specified recapture provisions.
Participants (other than ‘custody account’ applicants) must prove stable credit history, stable job history, no recent drug/felony convictions.
These general recapture provisions include: 1) Waiving all federal income tax refunds for a period of 5 years; 2) Waiving benefits from economic security programs, select benefits from means-tested welfare programs, SSI, and SSDI for a period of 5 years; 3) Enrollees in the Medicare, VA Healthcare system, Federal Employees Health Benefits (FEHB), and TRICARE will be subject to a $6,000 deductible for primary care and outpatient services annually for a period of 5 years. (See full plan for more details)
Primary scoring assumptions:
The Plan assumes an 80% participation rate by U.S. citizens. Wealthier Americans would choose not to participate, due to the comparative benefit of income tax refund amounts. Many individuals of lower socio-economic sector would also choose not to participate, due to the comparatively high benefits profiles that they would not wish to give up.
The Plan assumes that participating families would use significant funds to pay down / eliminate debt, and that these longer-term, lower debt service obligations would enhance the financial security of participating families for several decades beyond the opening activation period. Federal, state, and local government entities would benefit from longer-term tax revenue growth and reduced citizen dependence on government-based entitlement program benefits.
The Plan assumes that dynamic new efficiencies would emerge in the healthcare system – with more families managing/directing healthcare expenditures through their MSAs.
The Plan assumes that apart from the recapture provisions, there would also be significant tax revenue growth for federal, state and local government entities from free-market economic revitalization, more people working and paying taxes, and from the elimination of various income tax deductions (e.g. mortgage / HELOC interest expense).
The Plan assumes that there would not be a massive full-scale move back into the means-tested welfare programs, income security programs, SSI, and SSDI at the end of the initial 5-year activation period.
The benefits of a free-market economy and newfound economic liberty for American families would provide positive economic inertia throughout years 5-10, and for several decades beyond.
Recapture provisions would provide a substantial federal budget surpluses for each year of the initial 5-year period. Economic growth over the following 10-15 years would generate sufficient recapture funding and tax revenue growth to offset the entire initial Federal Reserve balance sheet expansion.
Significant inertia from The Plan would also provide on-going, market-based growth benefits over succeeding years that far exceed any prospect for healthy economic growth that may be expected under America’s current big-government, central-planning approach.
Dynamic economic benefits would flow from: 1) Family level massive debt elimination, financial security gains; 2) Timely, sweeping reversal of big government “central planning” control; 3) Productivity gains from reversal of work disincentives currently embedded in social programs; 4) Economic growth, improved productivity, job creation, free market dynamics; 5) Stabilization of bank capitalization, housing market; 6) Strengthen / stabilize long-term value of U.S. Dollar; 7) Minimizing the role of government in managing, directing, controlling the affairs of citizens.
2. Federal Budget Deficit Projections – Congressional Budget Office
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2024-2034 projects budget deficits ranging from $1.938 trillion 2025 to $2.193 in 2030, and on up to $2.862 trillion by 2034. Actual deficits for the out years are likely to be higher than CBO projections, based upon history (“actual” versus “projected”).
Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Deficit Projections 2024-2034
CBO deficit projections for target period (2026-2030)
2024: $1.915 trillion (actual) vs $1.571 trillion (projected)
2025: $1.938 trillion
2026: $1.851 trillion
2027: $1.756 trillion
2028: $1.942 trillion
2029: $1.949 trillion
2030: $2.193 trillion
Total deficits projected 2026-2030: $9.691 trillion
Source: CBO 10-Year Budget Projections (2024-2034): https://www.cbo.gov/publication/60419
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3. Federal Income Tax Recapture
The scoring model assumes that 80% of U.S. citizens will participate in The Leviticus 25 Plan.
Participants must give up their tax refunds through the Plan’s recapture provisions for the 5-year target period (2026-2030).
According to 2024 IRS Filing season statistics, through Dec 27, 2024: 104,866,000 total refunds were paid out, totaling $329.073 billion.
Refund totals have increased by ~$25.312 billion over the past seven years, from $303.761 billion (2018) to a current (estimated) $329.073 billion (2024), representing an average increase of $3.6 billion per year.
A conservative estimated average of $3.6 billion per year (2026-2030) will be used for this recapture calculation.
2024: $329.1 billion
2025: $332.7 billion
2026: $336.3 billion
2027: $339.9 billion
2028: $343.5 billion
2029: $347.1 billion
2030: $350.7 billion
Total: $1.718 trillion
Total recapture X 80%: $1.717 trillion X .8 = $1.374 trillion
Total recapture per annum (2026-2030): $1.374 trillion / 5 = $274.8 billion
Source(s): https://www.irs.gov/newsroom/filing-season-statistics-by-year
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4. Means-tested welfare / Economic Security Programs – Recapture
Participants in the Plan will forego Economic Security Program benefits and select means-tested welfare benefits for the period 2026-2030.
Economic security programs: About 11 percent (or $742.5 billion) of the federal budget in 2024 supported [safety net] programs that provide aid (other than health insurance or Social Security benefits) to individuals and families facing hardship. Economic security programs include: the refundable portions of the Earned Income Tax Credit and Child Tax Credit, which assist low- and moderate-income working families; programs that provide cash payments to eligible individuals or households, including unemployment insurance and Supplemental Security Income for low-income people who are elderly or disabled; various forms of in-kind assistance for low-income people, including the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (formerly known as food stamps), school meals, low-income housing assistance, child care assistance, and help meeting home energy bills; and other programs such as those that aid abused or neglected children.1
Source: https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go
Assuming modest 1.5% growth / year:
2024: $742.500 billion
2025: $742.500 billion + $11.138 billion = $753.638 billion
2026: $753.638 billion + $11.305 billion = $764.943 billion
2027: $764.943 billion + $11.474 billion = $776.417 billion
2028: $776.417 billion + $11.646 billion = $788.063 billion
2029: $788.063 billion + $11.821 billion = $799.884 billion
2030: $799.884 billion + $11.998 billion = $811.882 billion
Total projected federal means-tested welfare outlays 2026-2030 = $3.941 trillion
Assuming 80% participation: $3.941 trillion x .8 = $3.153 trillion
Total Means-tested Welfare recapture during the 5-year target period (2026-2030): $3.153 trillion
Source(s): https://www.cbpp.org/research/federal-budget/where-do-our-federal-tax-dollars-go
https://www.ssa.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/ssi_monthly/2024-11/table01.html
https://turbotax.intuit.com/tax-tips/general/how-are-federal-taxes-spent/L6kinGuUt : “Safety net programs, including unemployment insurance, food stamps, and low-income housing assistance, make up about 11% of your federal budget [$742.5 billion].”
https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/americas-finance-guide/federal-spending/ 2024 – $6.75 trillion”
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5. Medicaid/CHIP Recapture
Each U.S. citizen participating in The Plan will receive a $30,000 deposit, funded through a Federal Reserve / U.S. Treasury Department-based Citizens Credit Facility, into a personal Medical Savings Account (MSA).
The Leviticus 25 Plan assumes 80% participation by Medicaid / CHIP enrollees.
Within this comprehensive economic plan, The U.S. Health Care Freedom Plan provides
Medical Savings Account (MSA) funding of $30,000 to cover the $6,000 deductible for Medicaid and CHIP eligible primary care events and select out-patient care services – primarily related to routine medical appointments, Medicaid prescription events, disease state monitoring clinics, and other desired primary care services.
August 2024 Medicaid & CHIP Enrollment – 79,440,518 individuals were enrolled in Medicaid and CHIP in the 50 states and the District of Columbia that reported enrollment data for August 2024. 72,288,385 people were enrolled in Medicaid. 7,152,133 people were enrolled in CHIP.
Using a conservative estimate of 79.5 million for 2025, with a projected annual growth rate of 2%:
2025: 79.5 million
2026: 81.09 million
2027: 82.71 million
2028: 84.36 million
2029: 86.05 million
2030: 87.77 million
Total: 421.98 million receiving benefits 2026-2030
Average annual enrollment (2026-2030): 84.4 million
84.4 million X .8 = 67.52 million X $6,000/year X 5 years = $2.026 trillion
Total Medicaid/CHIP recapture during the 5-year target period (2026-2030): $2.026 trillion
https://www.healthcarefinancenews.com/news/medicaid-enrollment-higher-pandemic-kff-finds
Note 1: The potential savings of $2.296 trillion does not take into account the additional savings to state and local government outlays, which range from 17% to 39% of total Medicaid-CHIP spending.
Note 2: The potential savings of $2.026 trillion does not take into account the certainty of additional savings from individuals no longer being eligible for Medicaid-CHIP, due to their improving financial status.
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6. Medicare Recapture
Each U.S. citizen participating in The Plan will receive a $30,000 deposit, funded through a Federal Reserve / U.S Treasury Department-based Citizens Credit Facility, into a personal Medical Savings Account (MSA).
The Leviticus 25 Plan assumes 80% participation by Medicare enrollees.
Within this comprehensive economic plan, The U.S. Health Care Freedom Plan provides
Medical Savings Account (MSA) funding of $30,000 to cover a $6,000 annual deductible for Medicare-eligible primary care events and select out-patient services – primarily related to routine medical appointments, Medicare Part D prescription events, disease state monitoring clinics, and other desired primary care services.
There were 67.8 million people are enrolled in Medicare as of August 2024.
Projection: Medicare spending growth is projected to average 7.2% over 2021-2030, the fastest rate among the major payers. Projected spending growth of 11.3% in 2021 is expected to be mainly influenced by an assumed acceleration in utilization growth, while growth in 2022 of 7.5% is expected to reflect more moderate growth in use, as well as lower fee-for-service payment rate updates and the phasing in of sequestration cuts. Spending is projected to exceed $1 trillion for the first time in 2023. By 2030, Medicare spending growth is expected to slow to 4.3%.
Applying a conservative projected enrollment growth rate of 4.0% annually through 2030,
for the 5-year target period (2026 – 2030):
2024: 67.80 X .8 X $6,000 = $325,440,000
2025: 70.51 X .8 X $6,000 = $338,448,000
2026: 73.33 X .8 X $6,000 = $351,998,000
2027: 76.26 X .8 X $6,000 = $366,048,000
2028: 79.31 X .8 X $6,000 = $380,688,000
2029: 82.48 X .8 X $6,000 = $395,904,000
2030: 85.78 X .8 X $6.000 = $411,744,000
Total Medicare recapture during the 5-year target period (2026-2030): $1.906 trillion
Detailed enrollment data can be viewed here: https://data.cms.gov/summary-statistics-on-beneficiary-enrollment/medicare-and-medicaid-reports/medicare-monthly-enrollment. The data now include counts of Part D enrollees receiving the low-income subsidy.
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7. VA Healthcare
The Leviticus 25 Plan assumes 80% participation by Veterans Administration healthcare enrollees. Within this comprehensive structure, The U.S. Health Care Freedom Plan provides Medical Savings Account (MSA) funding of $30,000, through a Federal Reserve / U.S. Treasury-based Citizens Credit Facility, to cover annual $6,000 deductibles for VA healthcare services over the course of the 5-year target period (2026-2030).
FY 2022 – 9.1 million enrollees in the VA health care system.
The plan assumes a conservative 2% growth rate in VA Health Care enrollment / inflation adjusted costs (2026-2030).
2024: 9.10 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $43,680,000,000
2025: 9.28 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $44,544,000,000
2026: 9.47 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $45,456,000,000
2027: 9.66 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $46,368,000,000
2028: 10.05 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $48,240,000,000
2029: 10.25 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $49,200,000,000
2030: 10.46 X 0.8 X $6,000 = $50,208,000,000
Total recapture: $239,472,000,000
Average annual recapture (2026-2030): $239.472 billion / 5 = $47.894 billion
Total recapture 2026-2030: $239.472 billion
Source: https://www.va.gov/health/aboutvha.asp
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8. TRICARE
The Leviticus 25 Plan assumes 80% participation by TRICARE enrollees.
Through The U.S. Health Care Freedom Plan, participating members will receive a Medical Savings Account (MSA) funding injection of $30,000, through a Federal Reserve / U.S. Treasury Department-based Citizens Credit Facility, to cover annual $6,000 deductibles for desired primary care and out-patient services over the course of the 5-year target period (2026-2030).
There are currently ~9.5 million U.S. citizen beneficiaries in various locations around the world.
Recapture – total (2026-2030): 9.5 million X 0.8 X $6,000 X 5 years: $228.0 billion
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8. Federal Employee Health Benefits (FEHB)
The Leviticus 25 Plan assumes 80% participation by FEHB enrollees.
Participating members will receive a Medical Savings Account (MSA) funding injection of $30,000, through a Federal Reserve / U.S. Treasury Department-based Citizens Credit Facility, to cover annual $6,000 deductibles for desired primary care and out-patient services over the course of the 5-year target period (2026-2030).
FEHB Program carriers cover most active, full-time civilian employees and retirees of the U.S. government and their families. The Program now provides benefits to nearly 8.3 million federal enrollees and dependents and offers our 180 health plan choices to federal members.
Note – the Federal government also pays approximately 72% of premium costs per enrollee.
Recapture – total (2026-2030): 8.3 million X 0.8 X $6,000 X 5 = $199.200 billion
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9. Social Security Disability Income (SSDI)
The Leviticus 25 Plan specifies that qualifying participants will not be eligible for SSDI benefits.
The Plan assumes 80% participation by SSDI recipients.
Number | total monthly benefits, November 2024:
8,336,000 recipients
Total annual SSDI payments, November 2024: $140.496 billion.
This projection assumes a conservative 3% growth per year for 2026-2030, covering both enrollment growth and COLA:
2024: $140.496 billion
2025: $144.711 billion
2026: $149.052 billion
2027: $153.524 billion
2028: $158.130 billion
2029: $162.874 billion
2030: $167.760 billion
Total: $791.340 billion / Average per year: $158.268 billion
Total for 5-year target period 2026-2030:
Plan assumes 80% participation – recapture: $791.340 billion X 0.8 = $633.072 billion
Source(s): Social Security Benefits Dec 2023 – Disability Insurance
https://www.cbpp.org/research/social-security/social-security-disability-insurance-0
“SSDI benefits are financed primarily by part of the Social Security payroll tax and totaled about $152 billion in 2023.”
“Social Security’s trustees project that the share of people in the United States receiving SSDI will rise somewhat over the next 20 years and then remain stable.”
Note: The 3% growth projection, covering both the enrollment increase and annual COLA, is likely a conservative estimation for the period 2026-2030.
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Subtotals:
CBO projected deficit summary (2026-2030): $9.691 trillion
Recapture gains (2026-2030):
Federal Income Tax recapture benefit: $1.374 trillion
Safety Net Program recapture benefit: $3.153 trillion
Medicaid/CHIP $6,000 deductible recapture $2.026 trillion
Medicare $6,000 deductible recapture: $1.906 trillion
VA $6,000 deductible recapture: $239.472 billion
TRICARE $6,000 deductible recapture: $228.000 billion
FEHB $6,000 deductible recapture: $199.200 billion
SSDI recapture: $633.072 billion
Subtotal Summary: $9.759 trillion
Net surplus subtotal (before interest savings): $9.759 trillion – $9.691 trillion = $68.0 billion
10. Interest expense on projected deficits 2026-2030
Federal debt has increased from $22.1 trillion in 2020 to $35.46 trillion as of December 2024. Federal debt held by the public is reported to be $27.783 trillion, with the remainder, $7.677 trillion of intra-governmental debt outstanding, which arises when one part of the government borrows from another. This intra-governmental debt interest expense will be omitted from this calculation, since those dollars are not expensed directly.
The Center Square, Dec 26, 2024: As the debt grows, so does the average interest rate the government is paying. That rate jumped from 2.378% five years ago to 3.155% now. Since one of the key drivers of U.S. debt growth is interest on the debt, a vicious spending cycle has been created, one that lawmakers in the U.S. House Committee on the Budget recently called “completely unsustainable.”
The Bear Traps Report, Dec 30, 2024 – Excerpts:
“CBO data, Bloomberg. The average weighted coupon on the U.S. debt load is about 2.7% vs. over 4.5% for 10-year U.S. Treasuries. As bonds mature, they get refinanced at much higher yields.”
“$10Tr of Debt Refinancing Next Year – In 2024 Treasury faced around $10Tr of maturing debt. To refinance this debt, it issued a whopping $26Tr of bills and bonds. More than 84% of that paper was short-term bills with a maturity of 6 months or less. Treasury keeps re-issuing bills with a maturity of 4 to 8 weeks or 3,4 to 6 months, which are the most popular maturities in a continuing, ever-increasing roll down of the debt, day after day, month after month.”
“ALERT – By issuing nearly a colossal load of extremely short-term bills, Janet Yellen succeeded in suppressing bond volatility in an election year and, in our view, strategically placing that bond market volatility into 2025 after the election. You can “why” see above, she wanted LESS long-term paper in circulation markets in the election year.”
“Now, in 2025 – this paper has to be rolled over and termed out into longer-dated bonds. The USA is behaving like a financially trapped emerging market country. Living on the “front-end” of the yield curve is a VERY dangerous game.”
“Incoming Stress Points – In 2025 the U.S. Treasury faces $9.6Tr of maturities in their so-called publicly held debt. In Q1 alone — the government faces $5.58Tr of maturities (bonds coming due, redemption), but 86% of those are short-term bills that the Treasury department rolls over into new 4-week, 8-week, 3,4, or 6-month bills, among others.”
“As a result, almost daily bill auctions are coming to a theater near you, as the Treasury Department mindlessly keeps pushing new paper into the market to pay back the colossal amount of maturing debt.”
This projection will assume an average monthly interest rate of 3.13% for 2025, and a conservative average monthly interest rate of 3.00% in calculating the interest expense to be eliminated during the budget surplus years of 2026-2030.
This projection also assumes that annual federal budget deficits will be funded through Treasury Issuance at an average of 79.0% rate for Debt Held by the Public.
Year Annual Deficit/2
2025: $1.938 trillion/2 X .79 X .03 = $22.965 billion
2026: $1.851 trillion/2 X .79 X .03 = $21.934 billion
2027: $1.756 trillion/2 X .79 X .03 = $20.809 billion
2028: $1.942 trillion/2 X .79 X .03 = $23.013 billion
2029: $1.949 trillion/2 X .79 X .03 = $23.096 billion
2030: $2.193 trillion/2 X .79 X .03 = $25.987 billion
Recapture: Total interest expense eliminated by projected operating surpluses: $114.839 billion
Source(s):
https://www.thecentersquare.com/users/profile/therese%20boudreaux/
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The Leviticus 25 Plan budget surplus
Totals – 2026-2030:
5-year projected deficit (CBO): $9.691 trillion
5-year projected recapture (subtotal): $9.759 trillion
5-year projected interest expense savings: $114.839 billion
Budget surplus (projected) 2026-2030:
$9.832 trillion – $9.691 trillion = $68.0 billion
Budget surplus (projected) 2026-2030 with interest expense savings:
$68.0 billion + $114.839 billion = $182.839 billion
Average annual budget surplus (projected) 2026-2030:
$182.839 billion / 5 years: $36.568 billion per year
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Note 1: Projected budget surpluses for 2026-2030 do not factor in the additional government tax revenue gains that would accrue from the massive shift in capital away from debt service and into productive economic activity.
Note 2: Projected budget surpluses for 2026-2030 do not factor in the additional government tax revenue gains that would accrue from significantly lower levels of debt deductibility on individual income tax filings.
Note 3: Projected budget surpluses from the Medicaid / CHIP recapture do not take into account the likelihood of fewer citizens actually qualifying for Medicaid / CHIP benefits.
Note 4: Projected budget surpluses from Interest Expense Reductions during each of the first five years of activation (2026-2030) is likely understated due to the fact that ‘debt held by the public’ is projected to increase by 8.5% per year, from $28.278 trillion in 2026 to $40.198 trillion in 2030.
Note 5: The Plan’s funding of individual Medical Savings Accounts (MSAs) with the $6,000 deductible provision per year would result in an enormous drop in the number of claims each year for Medicare reimbursement. Medicare payroll taxes would generate a growing revenue stream, due to stronger economic growth, while outlays would drop significantly from the reduced claims numbers – thereby providing the Fed with a powerful tool to recapitalize the Medicare Trust Fund, vis the Citizen’s Credit Facility.
The Leviticus 25 Plan – Projection limitations
There can be no question that The Leviticus 25 Plan would generate healthy, broad-based economic growth from broad-based debt reduction and improved financial stability at the family level, the restoration of free market dynamics in commerce, and scaling back social program work disincentives.
The Leviticus 25 Plan does not attempt to project how much additional tax revenue and reduced cost of government will be realized, above and beyond the Recapture Provisions, over the course of the initial five years of the plan. In that sense, The Plan understates the effect of additional dynamic economic benefits.
Robust funding of Medical Savings Accounts and the elimination of millions of insurance claims and claims resolutions for basic primary care and everyday healthcare purchases swill save millions of man-hours of health care cost on an annual basis. Scaling back government involvement in basic primary care and everyday healthcare purchases for millions of Americans will also generate massive cost savings.
The Plan makes no attempt to project the positive effects of the streamlined, consumer-driven efficiencies that will emerge, and the cost reduction and improvement in services.
The Plan therefore understates the benefits.
The Plan projects an 80 percent participation rate by U.S. citizens. It is assumed that a large number of wealthy Americans will not participate, because their tax refunds are larger than the annual Plan benefits. And it is assumed that a large number of Americans receiving significant government benefits for extraordinary health or economic issues will also not participate.
Cost savings from the reductions in massive social welfare spending and other programs, like unemployment insurance, workman’s compensation, SSI and SSDI can be difficult to quantity, since state and federal funding mechanisms may both be involved in various ways. In that regard, The Plan may understate, or it may overstate, the benefits.
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