The Impossible Two Percent: Why Central Banks Cannot Afford Price Stability

ZeroHedge, Dec 01, 2025 – Authored by Hamoon Soleimani via The Mises Institute,

Excerpts:

The Cantillon Trap: Winners and Losers by Design

Monetary expansion doesn’t spread evenly. New money concentrates where it enters—in financial assets, real estate, and the balance sheets of those with credit access. This creates two economies: one for asset-holders, enriched by expansion; another for wage-earners, crushed by the cost increases that follow.

To hit 2 percent consumer inflation, central banks must restrict money supply enough to destroy demand among ordinary households—the people furthest from the monetary spigot. But they’ve already inflated assets to the point where millions of families, pension funds, and governments depend on continued expansion to stay solvent. Tightening enough to hit 2 percent CPI means liquidating the phantom wealth propping up the entire system. We glimpsed this in 2022-2023: modest rate increases triggered bank failures and sovereign debt crises.

The trap is complete: monetary expansion enriches the few while punishing the many, but contraction would bankrupt both.

The Measurement Mirage

The CPI doesn’t measure what people experience. Housing costs appear through “owner’s equivalent rent”—a fiction understating reality by a significant amount. Healthcare, education, childcare—costs that have doubled or tripled—receive minimal weight. Meanwhile, falling electronics and import prices pull the average down.

A family whose rent has doubled, childcare tripled, and healthcare quadrupled is told inflation is “only” three percent. Central banks fight to hit a target disconnected from lived reality, using tools that damage those already most hurt by mismeasured inflation.

The Sovereign Debt Vise

The United States now carries $38.12 trillion in debt, with deficits locked in structural overdrive. For fiscal year 2025 (ending September 30, 2025), the federal budget deficit totaled approximately $1.8 trillion—marking one of the largest annual deficits in US history in nominal terms. In calendar year 2025 alone (through November), the debt has already climbed by over $1 trillion, representing one of the fastest accumulations outside of pandemic-era spikes.

The Fed cannot pursue “price stability” without triggering sovereign default. It cannot monetize the debt without abandoning its inflation target. Monetary and fiscal policy have fused into a single system where every path leads to ruin.

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The QT Surrender: Why the Fed Can’t Stop Printing

The Federal Reserve announced in October 2025 that quantitative tightening will end in December after reducing its balance sheet from $9 trillion to $6.6 trillion. This isn’t a policy choice—it’s mathematical surrender.

The Fed’s balance sheet remains bloated with low-yielding assets from QE rounds dating to 2008, earning two-three percent while the Fed pays 4.5 percent on reserves it created to buy them. The Fed operated at a loss for three consecutive years.

But the Fed cannot shrink its balance sheet to pre-crisis levels without triggering a liquidity crisis. The modern financial system operates under an “ample reserves framework”—a euphemism for permanent monetary expansion. Banks, pension funds, and Treasury markets have become structurally dependent on massive reserve creation. When the Fed attempted modest QT reductions, repo markets showed stress. They’re stopping, not because inflation is conquered, but because the financial system cannot handle genuine monetary normalization.

The QT cessation sets the stage for QE’s inevitable return. The Fed is now in what Austrian economists call the “crack-up boom” phase—the point where monetary authorities choose between deflation (and cascading debt defaults) or continued inflation (and currency destruction). The QT cessation signals their choice.

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Policy Checkmate—The Impossible Choice

High inflation destroys savings, distorts price signals, and creates social instability. But we must be honest: the 2 percent target cannot be achieved without either.

The options seem to be: 1) a deflationary depression that liquidates the debt overhang—and likely the social order with it; 2) a financial repression that slowly confiscates wealth through negative real rates; or, 3) a restructuring of how we conceptualize monetary stability in a hyper-financialized economy.

The first option is politically impossible and humanly catastrophic. The second is what we’re already doing, just with more dishonesty. The third requires admitting central banking as currently practiced has failed.

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The Endgame

This is the endgame of monetary central planning: not with hyperinflationary bang or deflationary whimper, but with the confused stumbling of policymakers who cannot admit their tools have welded them into a cage. The two percent target, tariff dividends, ample reserves frameworks, and technocratic jargon cannot obscure the simple truth: we have built an economic system requiring perpetual monetary expansion to avoid collapse, and we’ve run out of ways to pretend this is sustainable policy rather than slow-motion currency debasement with extra steps.

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