Game Over DOGE: US Starts Fiscal 2025 With Record Budget Deficit, Shocking Interest Expense
ZeroHedge, Nov 25, 2025
Excerpts:
…..Earlier today, the Treasury published the October budget data, and it was ugly. Not all of it, mind you: tax receipts were actually quite solid: at $404 billion, consisting of $217 billion in income taxes and $128 billion in social security receipts…
… government revenues were actually a solid 23.7% improvement to the $326.8 billion collected in October 2024. Of course, that includes the now solid monthly contribution from Trump’s tariffs which in October added $31 billion to the tally.
As usual, it was government spending that was the problem again, and at $688.7 billion, or over $22 billion per day, the October total was a 17.9% jump compared to the $584.2 billion spent a year prior. And just when the US was making some modest progress on merging the red (spending) and green (revenue) lines.
The combination of these two numbers resulted in a $284.4 billion deficit for the month of October, which was not only higher than the $257.5 billion deficit last October, but also higher than the record Covid budget buster of $284.1 billion in October 2020!
And since we are now (only) one month in fiscal 2026, we now have the worst budget-deficit start to a fiscal year in US history.
In other words, no matter what the official line is, DOGE has left the building.
Taking a closer look at the causes of the October budget-busting deficit reveals the same usual suspects: spending across all major categories increased in October, but the most dramatic one was once again the relentless surge in the gross US interest, which is now a record $1.24 trillion in the last twelve months, and is rapidly approaching social security ($1.589 trillion LTM) as the largest source of government spending.
And here is the punchline: October gross interest was a record $104.4 billion, the highest for the month on record…
… and at $1.24 trillion in LTM interest expense, it means that 24 cents of every dollar in collected taxes goes to pay interest on the debt.
Bottom line: after a brief period of irrational hope in early 2025 when Musk’s obsession with DOGE and cutting spending gave the US some hope that there just may some – very painful – way out of this Minsky Moment, we are not only back at square zero one and back on the fast-track to the debt-death of the United States, but the US fiscal picture has never been worse!
No wonder why in a recent public commentary, Musk fully agrees with us: the government is unfixable.
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Mr. Musk is wrong. “Government,” and America’s fiscal failures are indeed “fixable.’
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