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Think America Owes $37 Trillion? It’s Far Worse Than That

Misleading accounting hides the stunning scale of DC’s financial obligations

Brian McGlinchey, Stark Realities | Aug 01, 2025

Excerpts:

When asked how far the US government has plunged into the red, many fiscally-conscious Americans will tell you the national debt has reached $37 trillion. As distressing as that official number is, America’s true fiscal situation is even worse — far worse. According to a barely-publicized Treasury report, the actual grand total of Uncle Sam’s obligations is more than $151 trillion.

That huge discrepancy springs from the fact that the federal government doesn’t hold itself to the same accounting standards it imposes on businesses. Rather than using accrual accounting — which recognizes expenses when they’re incurred — our Washington overlords self-servingly use simple cash accounting, only recognizing expenses when they’re paid. As a result, discourse on federal obligations solely focuses on the national debt, comprising Treasury bills, notes and bonds.

Once a year, however, an obscure report delivers a more accurate version of Uncle Sam’s balance sheet. While it receives almost no attention from journalists or public officials, the Treasury Department is required to submit an annual report to Congress detailing the government’s financial condition. Critically, the 1994 law compelling this report mandates that it reflect “unfunded liabilities” — that is, commitments made without any dedicated assets or income streams to ensure they’ll be kept.

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One of the larger categories of those unfunded liabilities is future federal employee and veterans benefits. At the end of the 2024 fiscal year, this alone represented a $15 trillion obligation. However, by leaps and bounds, the largest unfunded liabilities spring from America’s social insurance obligations — primarily Social Security and Medicare. At fiscal-year end, these liabilities totaled a towering $105.8 trillion.

Stacking these and other unfunded liabilities on top of the publicly-held national debt and other obligations, you arrive at a grand total of $151.3 trillion at the end of the 2024 fiscal year. Offsetting that by an estimated $7.9 trillion in US government commercial assets — including property, plant, equipment and purported gold holdings — a Just Facts analysis puts Uncle Sam at an overall net-negative $143 trillion.

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Wrangling over the budget isn’t going to save us. Congressional debates tend to center on discretionary spending — outlays that require a vote by Congress during the appropriations process. However, America’s steady march to insolvency is driven by so-called mandatory spending, which is hardwired by previously-enacted laws.

In what may be the most ominous indication that the government is on an autopilot-course for catastrophe, the proportion of total federal outlays driven by mandatory spending has more than doubled since 1965 — from 34% to 73% in 2024. It was at 71% just two years earlier, in 2022.

The two largest examples of mandatory spending are Social Security and Medicare. Those old-age programs are now well within sight of a crisis that’s been warned about for a generation: According to the latest report from their program trustees, Social Security and Medicare trust funds are now just seven years from insolvency.

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There’s another key component of mandatory spending that isn’t counted in the national debt: interest payments on debt issued to cover past and current spending. “In total, social programs and interest on the national debt—which mainly stems from social programs—account for 75% of all federal spending,” notes Agresti.

Interest payments also represent a steadily growing share of total outlays, and will total almost $1 trillion this year. Within 10 years, they’re projected to reach $2 trillion, roughly equal to the entire 2025 deficit. Last year saw a grim milestone, as interest expense surpassed spending on both defense and Medicare.

Current projections have interest surpassing Social Security to become the largest single expenditure by 2042, but don’t be surprised if that milestone doesn’t come sooner. The government is already descending into a vicious cycle in which mounting US debt has the buyers of that debt demanding higher interest rates in compensation for the growing risk of inflation and/or default — with those higher rates creating larger interest payouts and even more debt.

Beyond mandatory-vs-discretionary, and funded-vs-unfunded, there’s an even more important but far-less-discussed classification of spending that goes to the very heart of America’s march toward financial disaster: constitutional vs unconstitutional. As I noted in the most-read article at Stark Realities, “Americans Are Fighting For Control Of Federal Powers That Shouldn’t Exist”:

Today’s sprawling federal government, which involves itself in almost every aspect of daily American life, is almost entirely unconstitutional.

To rattle off just a random fistful of the federal government’s unauthorized undertakings and entities — brace yourself — there is zero constitutional authority for the Social Security, Medicare, federal drug prohibitions, the Small Business Administration, crop subsidies, the Department of Labor, automotive fuel efficiency standards, climate regulations, the Federal Reserve, union regulation, housing subsidies, the Department of Agriculture, workplace regulations, the Department of Education, federal student loans, the Food and Drug Administration, food stamps, unemployment insurance or light bulb regulations. Even that sampling doesn’t begin to fully account for the scope of the unsanctioned activity.

This Pandora’s box of unconstitutional endeavors was opened wide by unconscionably expansive Supreme Court interpretations of the Constitution in the 1930s. It’s no coincidence that federal spending represented a mere 3% of GDP in 1930 but soared to an economy-warping 23% by 2024.

Now we find the federal government in a $143 trillion hole, a burden that comes out to $1,085,022 per US household. History suggests this will end with a government default. In the United States, that will likely occur not via an explicit repudiation of the debt, but through rampant price inflation as the Treasury and the Federal Reserve conspire to create new money out of thin air to make debt payments.

“They can’t pay the debt, so they have to liquidate the debt,” said former Congressman Ron Paul in a June conversation with David Lin. “They [won’t] default — they’re always going to pay something for the Treasury bills. What they’re going to do is liquidate the debt by paying it off with counterfeit money.”

While the Fed-Treasury money creation scheme has been with us for a long time, the alarming trajectory of federal debt and spending point to future money-printing on a scale that will trigger hyperinflation and economic collapse. At that point, Americans will stand at a crossroads. Desperation and fear will make them susceptible to the siren song of even more authoritarianism and unconstitutional, centralized command of the economy and society than what put them in such dire straits to begin with.

“People will want to be taken care of,” Paul said. “I see it as an opportunity. If people are promoting the cause of liberty and there’s chaos in the streets, we better get out there and lead the charge and say you don’t need more of what caused this. You don’t need more authoritarianism. What you need is more liberty and more peace, and that means you ought to obey the Constitution.”

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