Stunning: “$834.2 billion in debt during Q3 to grow the US economy by $334.5 billion, or exactly $2.5 in debt for every $1 in GDP”

Question: Do Washington Democrats and Republicans have a plan to turn this looming economic shipwreck around…?

Does the Fed have a plan, or the U.S. Dept of Treasury…?

Answer: No, No, and No.

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US GDP “Grew” $334 Billion In Q4…. That Growth Cost $834 Billion In Debt

ZeroHedge, Feb 28, 2024 – Excerpts:

…First, according to the Biden admin, in Q4 GDP rose 3.2%, a modest drop from the 3.3% reported in the first estimate one month ago, and below the 3.3% consensus estimate.

While we already know this, the BEA reported that the increase in the fourth quarter primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

  • The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both services and goods. Within services, the leading contributors were health care, food services and accommodations, and other services (led by international travel). Within goods, the leading contributors to the increase were other nondurable goods (led by pharmaceutical products) as well as recreational goods and vehicles.
  • The increase in exports reflected increases in both goods (led by petroleum) and services (led by financial services).
  • The increase in state and local government spending reflected increases in both investment (led by structures) and consumption expenditures (led by compensation of employees).

But what does that have to do with the bitcoin spike?

Well, a closer look at the data revealed something stunning: a quick look at the increase in nominal GDP, which rose from $27.61 trillion in Q3 to $27.94 trillion in Q4, shows that the US economy increased some $334.5 billion in absolute nominal dollar terms.

But where did this growth come from? Why debt of course, and a lot of it. For the answer how much debt, we go to the US Treasury’s Debt to the penny website, where we find that debt on Sept 30, 2023 was $33,167,334,044,723.16 and debt on Dec 31, 2023 was $34,001,493,655,565.48.

In other words, it cost $834.2 billion in debt during Q3 to grow the US economy by $334.5 billion, or exactly $2.5 in debt for every $1 in GDP “growth.” Source: BEA and US Treasury

Which also brings us back full circle and explains why bitcoin is now trading at $60,000, the highest price since late 2021 and why it will not only surpass its all time high in just a few days, but why it will rise much, much higher, because the US is now well past the point of no return.

_________________________________________

Main Street America Republicans do have a plan – with the power and reach to bring the U.S. back “from the point of no return” – to being once again the world’s premier free market economic powerhouse.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 (11782 downloads )

20Y Treasury Auction – “Very ugly.”

Today’s Treasury auction of 20Y paper wrapped up with some “disastrous metrics.”

Higher interest payment obligations on America’s already ‘out of control’ federal borrowing means that the currently rip-roaring “interest expense” item in the annual budget deficits just got hotter…

The good news: There is a solution to this monumental fiscal quagmire…

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Yields Surge After Terrible 20Y Auction With Biggest Tail o Record

ZeroHedge, Feb 21, 2024 – Excerpts:

Despite some optimistic expectations (most notably from Bloomberg’s Markets Live blog) that today’s 20Y auction would “stop through with long list of positives”, moments ago the Treasury sold 20Y paper with disastrous metrics which sent yields sharply higher across the board.

The high yield of 4.595% was well above last month’s 4.423% but worse, it tailed the When Issued 4.562% by a whopping 3.30bps, which was the biggest tail on record for the tenor since the 20Y auction was introduced in May 2020.

The bid to cover tumbled to 2.39, down from 2.53, well below the 2.59 six-auction average, and was the lowest since August 2022. 

The internals were even uglier, with Indirects awarded just 59.08%, lower than last month’s 62.16%, sharply lower than recent average of 68.2% and the lowest since May 2021. And with Directs taking down 19.7%, Dealers were left holding 21.2%, the most since May 2021.

Overall this was a very ugly auction, despite the substantial concession thanks to the ongoing selling in rates (perhaps due to the $13.5BN in debt issuance just announced by Cisco to fund its Splunk purchase), and while it is unclear why demand was so terrible perhaps one can attribute it to nerves from today’s FOMC Minutes which however should be a non-event as they are already rather dated and do not reflect the latest reflationary spike.

In any case, yields promptly spiked with the 10Y rising as high as 4.325% before retracing some of the move, which also sent stocks sliding briefly before recovering.

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The Leviticus 25 Plan will generate $112.6 billion budget surpluses annually during each of the first five years of activation (2025-2029).

Which means – NO TREASURY AUCTIONS. No “disastrous metrics.” Falling interest rates. U.S. Dollar strength and stability. Long-term economic growth.

Summary Details:

·  The Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 Generates $112.6 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2025-2029). Part 1: Overview, Deficit Projection

·  The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $112.6 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2025-2029). Part 2: Federal Income Tax Recapture; Economic Security / Means-Tested Welfare Recapture.

·  The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $112.6 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2025-2029). Part 3: Medicaid, Medicare, VA, TRICARE, FEHB, SSDI Recapture

·  The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $112.6 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2025-2029). Part 4: Interest Expense Recapture, Totals Summary

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 (11654 downloads )

Dear Washington Republicans – It is time to ‘wake up’ and begin winning the hearts and votes of America’s hard-working, tax-paying U.S. citizens..

Washington Republicans appear to be losing ground in America’s ‘election integrity’ battles, while at the same time offering ‘nothing’ to restore prosperity, reignite economic growth, maintain confidence in the American Dream – to win back the hearts, and votes, of U.S. citizens.

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GOP Efforts To Shore Up Election Security In Swing States Face Challenges

ZeroHedge, Feb 19, 2024  |  Authored by Steven Kovac via The Epoch Times

Excerpts: 

Massive voter fraud allegations that marred the 2020 election spurred a political and grassroots movement from coast to coast to pursue an array of election reforms designed to increase election integrity.

However, with just months left ahead of the 2024 election, Republicans say little was mended, especially in contested states where they thought fixes were needed most.

Much concern is centered around five key swing states that became the focus of 2020: Georgia, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, and Wisconsin.

Election reforms tend to follow party lines. Democrats commonly castigate increased election security measures as voter suppression, while Republicans often condemn laws and directives that loosen security as aiding and abetting voter fraud.

According to a report from the Brennan Center for Justice, a left leaning, non-profit, law and research foundation, 23 states enacted 53 laws relaxing election security restrictions in 2023, while 14 states enacted 17 laws tightening them.

The statistics suggest that Democrats are still winning the nationwide battle, as they have for the past several years. The report found the states that took the most actions to tighten election security are the places that already had security measures in place.

Of the 14 states that tightened voting procedures, President Trump won all but one (New Mexico) in both 2016 and 2020. The 14 states listed by the Brennan Center include Arkansas, Florida, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Mississippi, North Carolina, North Dakota, Nebraska, New Mexico, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Wyoming.

The methods by which Americans cast their ballots have changed markedly over the last four federal election cycles, with many people embracing election procedures such as no-excuse absentee voting, early voting, and same-day voter registration.

As early as 2005, the bipartisan Carter-Baker Commission raised concerns that mail-in voting was a vehicle for potentially significant election fraud, yet the method has since steadily grown.

In the 2022 election, half the states and territories allowed same-day voter registration.

In the election cycles before the pandemic, the EAC study said that nearly 60 percent of Americans voted in person on election day. In 2022, the figure was 49 percent.

Before the pandemic, mail-in ballot drop boxes were rare, with most being deployed in or around an election office. By 2022, there were 13,000 drop boxes being used in 39 states, with many boxes placed in settings that lacked security and surveillance measures.

Fifteen of the 39 states and territories using drop boxes, including Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, New York, and Maine, couldn’t report how many ballots were collected from their receptacles in 2022, the report said….

Despite the push by some election integrity activists for the hand-counting of ballots as a means to improve accuracy and security, the method was used by only 17.8 percent of jurisdictions in 2022, down from 20.7 percent in 2020.

And although chain of custody protections for ballots are being tightened in several states, dirty voter registration rolls—resulting in mail-in ballots being sent to ineligible people, undeliverable addresses, or multiple ballots being sent to the same individual—are still a widespread issue….

Georgia – The state of Georgia has been the scene of continuous controversy over the conduct of the Nov. 3, 2020, presidential election in which challenger Mr. Biden defeated incumbent President Trump by 11,779 votes (0.23 percent).

The persistent public outcry over alleged election fraud prompted the Republican-controlled Georgia General Assembly to pass the 95-page Georgia Election Integrity Act of 2021.

The declared purpose of the legislation is to apply “the lessons learned” in 2020 and “make it easy to vote and hard to cheat,” in the future.

An explanatory notation in the bill acknowledged that there was a “significant lack of confidence” in the state’s election systems stemming from persistent allegations of “rampant voter fraud” and “rampant voter suppression.”

The changes made in this legislation in 2021 are designed to address the lack of elector confidence in the election system on all sides of the political spectrum,” the notation said….

The act prohibits local officials from accepting non-government funds, grants, or gifts in connection with election administration.

In 2023, the Georgia legislature passed SB-222 to bolster the 2021 prohibition to make it a crime.

In protest to the new 2021 measures, Major League Baseball deemed them “restrictive,” and moved that year’s All-Star Game from Georgia to Colorado.

Georgia state Sen. Colton Moore, a Republican, said that although improvements have been made since 2020, much meaningful work is still needed.

Nothing of substance has changed since 2020. Every mechanism to facilitate a steal is still in place,” he told The Epoch Times. “We must work to eliminate the vulnerabilities still in place today.”

Mr. Moore also highlighted the “ridiculous” number of absentee ballots still used in Georgia elections and said they ought to be restricted to military personnel and medically disabled citizens. He said he was also worried about the institutionalization of the use of absentee ballot drop boxes, which he believes should be done away with altogether.

“We need to make it a legislative priority to stop authoritarian figures like [Fulton County District Attorney] Fani Willis from prosecuting people for merely questioning our elections. Her actions have created a chilling effect among my colleagues in the legislature,” he said.

“Unless we obtain a legislative solution soon, we must resolve to overcome fraud through an overwhelming turnout in November.”

Michigan

Right after being elected in 2018, Michigan’s Democrat Gov. Gretchen Whitmer used her veto power to shoot down nearly 20 election integrity reform bills sent to her desk by the then-Republican-controlled state legislature.

In the 2020 presidential election, President Donald Trump lost Michigan to Joe Biden by 154,000 votes or 2.8 percent.

Afterwards, judges in six different court cases found that Michigan’s Democrat Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson issued inaccurate or legally unauthorized guidance to local officials in the runup to the 2020 general election.

When Ms. Whitmer was reelected in 2022 and Democrats captured control of the legislature, within a year 12 new Democrat-sponsored election laws were enacted—all of which Republicans say loosen security.

The new Democrat-authored statutes extend automatic voter registration to other state agencies and offices beyond the Secretary of State’s office, which issues driver’s licenses in Michigan.

They liberalize online registration and allow a person to apply for an absentee ballot online. They permit 16-year-olds to pre-register to vote.

During the past several election cycles, Democrat activists, backed by out-of-state, big-money donors, effectively used the ballot initiative process to repeal existing election laws, enact new laws, and amend the state constitution. Two of the largest contributors were the Sixteen Thirty Fund ($11 million) and the George Soros-founded Open Society Foundation ($1.2 million)….

The initiative process was also used to weaken photo ID requirements by mandating that election officials accept an affidavit of identity signed by the prospective voter instead. It also enabled people to request to automatically receive an absentee ballot for every election in perpetuity, and it authorized taxpayer-funded, postage-free mailing for people returning absentee ballot applications or mail-in ballots….

The ballot proposals enacting these new laws were approved handily by the Michigan electorate at the polls.

Read the rest here…

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Dear Washington Republicans

It is high time for you to win over voters – and win elections – the old fashioned way, with powerful economic plans and strategies to: 1) Improve financial security and enact a sweeping debt relief plan for millions of American families (like you did for Wall Street’s banks and insurers during 2008-2010 and again during the Covid years 2021-2022); 2) Reduce the pressures on state and federal government agencies to continue expanding entitlement spending; 3) Get America’s snowballing federal deficits back under control; and 4) Minimize governmental intrusion into the daily affairs of U.S. citizens.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 (11646 downloads )

Simon White – Global Bonds on Thin Ice

Inflation Uncertainty Leaves Global Bonds On Thin Ice

ZeroHedge, Feb 12, 2024 | Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist Excerpts:

Inflation may have fallen from its peak around the world, but in the inflationary regime in which we remain, upside surprises are more likely.

That would worsen already weak liquidity in global bonds and heighten the risk of rising yields….

Liquidity and inflation are related.

The volatility of inflation, which rises when inflation rises, tracks bond liquidity. Higher inflation volatility typically goes with poorer liquidity in bonds.

As we can see from the chart above, developed-market inflation volatility remains elevated, leaving bond liquidity liable to deteriorate.

Bonds have been trading with a negative skew, shown for the TLT (ETF of long-term USTs) below, which means that poor liquidity is more likely to lead to lower prices, higher yields.

This comes at a time when there are compelling signs of a cyclical upswing in global growth.

The combination of supported growth, receding US recession risk, heightened inflation uncertainty, and a deterioration in bond liquidity is a complete recipe for higher bond yields.

The risk is compounded when taking account of the rarefied view that US bond yields – which have a significant influence on DM yields – will move much higher this year, according to bank surveys.

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Debt reduction / elimination is indispensable to restoring liquidity to bond markets.

There is precisely one plan on America’s table with the power to restore that liquidity.

The Leviticus 25 Plan will generate $112.6 billion annual federal budget surpluses over each of the first five years of activation (2025-2029) – taking an enormous amount of pressure off the credit markets.

The Plan will ignite a long-term economic growth cycle, restore financial security for millions of American families, stabilize the U.S. Dollar, and rejuvenate free-market dynamics and economic liberty.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 (11631 downloads )

“The building of a free society…” – Fredrich A. von Hayek

Fredrich A. von Hayek: “We must make the building of a free society once more an intellectual adventure, a deed of courage…. Unless we can make the philosophic foundations of a free society once more a living intellectual issue, and its implementation a task which challenges the ingenuity and imagination of our liveliest minds, the prospects of freedom are indeed dark. But if we can regain that belief in the power of ideas which was the mark of liberalism at its best, the battle is not lost.” 

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To help make America’s rebuild a reality…

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 (11499 downloads )

Welfare Expansion H.R. 7024 – Courtesy of 169 Republicans and 188 Democrats in U.S. House of Representatives.

Clerk of the United States House of Representatives – Roll Call vote H.R. 7024 (see how your Representative(s) voted): https://clerk.house.gov/Votes/202430?RollCallNum=30&BillNum=H.R.7024

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169 Republicans Vote to Expand Welfare, Bill Heads to Senate January 31, 2024 – Excerpts:

169 Republicans joined 188 Democrats to expand welfare. There were only 47 no votes from Republicans.

More Welfare

.@RepThomasMassie on the welfare tax bill: “There’s something in this bill called ‘tax credits,’ but they’re also called ‘refundable.’ So what is a refundable tax credit?

It’s welfare by a different name. We are going to give cash payments, checks to people who don’t even pay… pic.twitter.com/lZGZYImGus | — Rep. Matt Gaetz (@RepMattGaetz) January 31, 2024

“There’s something in this bill called ‘tax credits,’ but they’re also called ‘refundable.’ So what is a refundable tax credit? It’s welfare by a different name. We are going to give cash payments, checks to people who don’t even pay taxes. The hard-working constituents that I represent in Kentucky are tired of getting up at 6am, driving an hour or two to work, working their hind ends off to watch their neighbors collect these checks, of which there will be more of after this bill. It’s just wrong.”…

Where Socialism Works

“SOCIALISM ONLY WORKS TWO PLACES — HEAVEN
WHERE THEY DON’T NEED IT — AND HELL WHERE THEY ALREADY HAVE IT” ~RONALD REAGAN

The Wall Street Journal comments on The GOP’s Spending Boost for Biden

Mind Boggling SupportSocial Security and Medicare spending climbed 12% to 13% in the first three months of this fiscal year compared to last. Sweetened subsidies are boosting ObamaCare enrollment. Growing entitlement spending is one reason that government, healthcare and social assistance accounted for more than half of the net new jobs in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The deficit would be even larger if not for the Internal Revenue Service holding back a wave of more stimulus. The agency in September paused processing new claims for the Covid-era Employee Retention Credit owing to concerns over abuse and fraud. By one estimate, the IRS has a $244 billion backlog of claims, which will flood the economy when the IRS processes them.

All of this spending contributes to GDP, at least in the short term. But much of this isn’t productive growth that will improve living standards in the long term, and the bills for all this spending will probably be paid in higher taxes.

That’s why it’s mind-boggling that House Republicans want to help Democrats throw another deficit party … tax credit and extend some business tax breaks through 2025.

Democrats have signed on because they view the child-credit provisions as a down payment on a guaranteed annual income and want to boost flagging business investment this year. The political mystery is why Republicans want to add their signature. The tax bill negotiated by Democrat Ron Wyden and GOP Rep. Jason Smith is another in-kind contribution to the Democratic re-election campaign.

The legislation now heads to the Senate. If the Senate Republicans hoist another surrender flag, Biden would sign the bill.

But it takes 60 votes in the Senate. That’s not a given.

Senators are haggling over spending and immigration legislation. They are scheduled to be on recess for two weeks starting Feb. 12, and aides don’t expect lawmakers to consider the tax bill before then.

“I’m certainly not just willing to let the House pass something and then say, ‘Oh well, we’ll just take that,’” said Sen. John Cornyn (R., Texas), who said he doesn’t feel any urgency to advance the bill. “The price we’re having to pay is pretty outrageous.

The price is not pretty outrageous, it’s very outrageous.

Question of the Day – Of what possible use are Republicans when the majority vote like Democrats?…

In case you haven’t figured this out, it’s highly inflationary.

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Note: According to the Wall Street Journal, Jan 17, 2024, “The overall deal would cover the 2023, 2024 and 2025 tax years and cost roughly $78 billion.”

_______________________________

Main Street America Republicans have a powerful alternative plan.

This Plan will lift working Americans up out of poverty and reduce dependence on government. It will revive a macro economic environment in America where federal, state and local governments will be able to cut taxes for families and small businesses, rather than continually dipping into the budget-busting tax credits ‘cookie jar.’

This Plan will reduce entitlement spending, restore financial security for America’s hard-working, tax-paying U.S. citizens, and, most importantly, generate $112.6 billion federal budget surpluses annually (2025-2029).

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2025 (11487 downloads )