Following the Covid lockdowns, supply chain issues, rising inflation, ‘tapped out’ consumers – America’s Small Businesses are in desperate need of a fresh start.

Bankrate.com, Sep 18, 2023:

• Statistics vary, but between 55 percent to 63 percent of Americans are likely living paycheck to paycheck.
• Three in four Americans who earn less than $50,000 are living paycheck to paycheck, compared to roughly two in three of those making $50,000 to $100,000.
• Paycheck-to-paycheck living can result in missed or late payments, which can cause your credit score to drop — leading to fees, penalties, higher financing costs and difficulty qualifying for future credit.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Small Business 2023

Small Business Office of Advocacy

Mar 7, 2023: There are 33,185,550 small businesses in the United States. Small businesses employ 61.7 million Americans, totaling 46.4% of private sector employees.

From 1995 to 2021, small businesses created 17.3 million net new jobs, accounting for 62.7% of net jobs created since 1995.

Small businesses are the lifeblood of the U.S. economy: they create two-thirds of net new jobs and drive U.S. innovation and competitiveness

………………………….

Pendulummag.com: It’s tough to do business in an environment where the input costs are constantly rising, and revenue is not keeping pace.

At best, it means slimmer margins for business owners. At worse, it means no margins or even being in the red.

A survey conducted last summer that involved 4,392 small business owners with fewer than 50 employees in the United States showed that 47% of these businesses were at risk of closing. Of the various industries surveyed, the most at-risk businesses are those in the retail, construction, and restaurant industries. I think we can agree that the business environment hasn’t improved in 2023, given the stickiness of inflation and how interest rates have continued to go up.

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The U.S. Department of Treasury, The Federal Reserve, and Washington Democrats and Republicans have no credible plan to reduce America’s staggering debt load, re-ignite economic growth, restore economic liberty, and brighten the future for America’s 33 million small businesses and their 61.7 million employees..

Main Street America Republicans do have a plan – the most powerful economic acceleration plan in the world.\

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (9166 downloads)

Moody’s Cuts USA’s Aaa Rating Outlook To ‘Negative’; Treasury Dept “Disagrees”

ZeroHedge, Nov 10, 2023 – Excerpts;

…. After a disastrous 30Y bond auction this week, a collapse in Treasury market liquidity, and an accelerating rise in the market’s perception of the United States’ credit risk, Moody’s has just cut its outlook on US credit ratings to negative from stable.

The key driver of the outlook change to negative is Moody’s assessment that the downside risks to the US’ fiscal strength have increased and may no longer be fully offset by the sovereign’s unique credit strengths.

In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.

Continued political polarization within US Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.

Moody’s does affirm the Aaa rating:  The affirmation of the Aaa ratings reflects Moody’s view that the US’ formidable credit strengths continue to preserve the sovereign’s credit profile…

ABSENT POLICY ACTION, FISCAL STRENGTH WILL DECLINE:  The sharp rise in US Treasury bond yields this year has increased pre-existing pressure on US debt affordability. In the absence of policy action, Moody’s expects the US’ debt affordability to decline further, steadily and significantly, to very weak levels compared to other highly-rated sovereigns, which may offset the sovereign’s credit strengths…

Moody’s expects federal interest payments relative to revenue and GDP to rise to around 26% and 4.5% by 2033, respectively, from 9.7% and 1.9% in 2022. These projections factor in Moody’s expectation of higher-for-longer interest rates, with the average annual 10-year Treasury yield peaking at around 4.5% in 2024 and ultimately settling at around 4% over the medium term. The debt affordability forecasts also take into account Moody’s expectations that, absent significant policy changes, the federal government will continue to run wide fiscal deficits of around 6% of GDP near term and to around 8% by 2033, the widening being driven by higher interest payments and aging-related entitlement spending.

By comparison, deficits averaged around 3.5% of GDP from 2015-2019. Such deficits will raise the US federal government’s debt burden to around 120% of GDP by 2033 from 96% in 2022. In turn, a higher debt burden will inflate the interest bill.

For a reserve currency country like the US, debt affordability – more than the debt burden – determines fiscal strength. As a result, in the absence of measures that limit the size of fiscal deficits, fiscal strength will increasingly weigh on the US’ credit profile.

FISCAL RISKS ARE EXACERBATED BY ENTRENCHED POLITICAL POLARIZATION UNDERSCORING RISING POLITICAL RISK:  At a time of weakening fiscal strength, there is an increased risk that political divisions could further constrain the effectiveness of policymaking by preventing policy action that would slow the deterioration in debt affordability. These risks underscore rising political risk to the US’ fiscal position and overall sovereign credit profile.

Recently, multiple events have illustrated the depth of political divisions in the US: renewed debt limit brinkmanship… In Moody’s view, such political polarization is likely to continue. As a result, building political consensus around a comprehensive, credible multi-year plan to arrest and reverse widening fiscal deficits through measures that would increase government revenue or reform entitlement spending appears extremely difficult.

While the US’ Aaa rating takes into account relative weaknesses with regards to the quality of the country’s legislative and executive institutions and fiscal policy effectiveness compared to other Aaa-rated sovereigns, there is a risk that these weaknesses take greater credit relevance because the deteriorating debt affordability trend would call for a more significant and effective fiscal policy response.

In particular, the US’ lack of an institutional focus on medium-term fiscal planning, either through legislated fiscal rules aimed at improving the fiscal balance or general bipartisan consensus on the need for fiscal consolidation, is fundamentally different from what is seen in most other Aaa-rated peers such as in Government of Germany (Aaa stable) and Government of Canada (Aaa stable).

Meanwhile, the more short-term focus of US fiscal policymaking, along with limited fiscal flexibility – because a very large portion of nondiscretionary budgetary spending is on mandatory entitlement programs and debt service (around 75% of total outlays), exacerbates already fractious bipartisan politics around a relatively disjointed and disruptive budget process. As annual debt service costs continue to rise, fiscal flexibility will diminish even further.

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Again, from Moody’s…:

“Continued political polarization within US Congress raises the risk that successive governments will not be able to reach consensus on a fiscal plan to slow the decline in debt affordability.“

And… :

“In Moody’s view, such political polarization is likely to continue. As a result, building political consensus around a comprehensive, credible multi-year plan to arrest and reverse widening fiscal deficits through measures that would increase government revenue or reform entitlement spending appears extremely difficult.“

And…:

“Meanwhile, the more short-term focus of US fiscal policymaking, along with limited fiscal flexibility – because a very large portion of nondiscretionary budgetary spending is on mandatory entitlement programs and debt service (around 75% of total outlays), exacerbates already fractious bipartisan politics around a relatively disjointed and disruptive budget process. As annual debt service costs continue to rise, fiscal flexibility will diminish even further.“

Washington Republicans and Democrats have no clue, and no credible plan to address America’s developing debt tsunami.

Main Street America Republicans do have a plan – which will “increase government revenue,” and generate massive annual budget surpluses… and “reform entitlement spending.”

It is loaded up and ‘ready to launch.’

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8901 downloads)

Endgame: Interest On US Debt Skyrockets Above $1 Trillion For The First Time Ever

ZeroHedge, Nov 09, 2023 – Excerpts:

Back in July… we warned that the debt Rubicon was about to be crossed and “US Debt Interest Payments Are About To Hit $1 Trillion.”

Fast forward to today when the endgame has apparently arrived: according to the Treasury’s own calculations, total interest is now over $1 trillion (or $1.027 trillion to be precise).

We calculated this by multiplying the average interest rate on marketable US Treasury debt (which according to the Treasury is 3.096% as of Oct 31) by the $26.003 trillion in marketable US debt (as of Oct 31) which nets off to $805 billion, and adding to this non-marketable debt interest (which as of Oct 31 was 2.884% multiplied by the amount of non-marketable debt which is $7.696 trillion) and which in turn is an additional $222 billion in interest. Add across and you get $1.027 trillion.

Naturally, this calculation of estimated real-time interest costs – which is entirely based on Treasury data – is different than what the Treasury actually paid. Interest costs in the fiscal year that ended Sept. 30 ultimately totaled $879.3 billion, up from $717.6 billion the previous year and about 14% of total outlays, however that number is merely lagging what the pro forma print currently is, and will inevitably catch up to it, and then lag on the other side even as pro forma interest payment start dropping (once interest rates plunge after the next QE/YCC is launched).

Fans of exponential functions, we got you covered: the unprecedented surge in both interest rates and interest expense in the past two years means that total US interest has doubled since April 2022 and that’s with the inherent lag in interest catch up – as a reminder, the vast majority of 5, 7, 10 and 30 year debt is still locked in at much lower interest rates, and as such, rates will continue to rise as all of the existing debt rolls into much higher rates over the coming years.

Looking ahead, the staggering surge in both yields and total long-term Treasuries in recent months confirms the government will continue to face an escalating interest bill….

Nov 9, 2023: Total US Debt is now $33.649 trillion, up $58 billion in one day and up $604 billion in one month… up $20 billion every day, up $833 million every hour…

At this rate US debt will be $41 trillion in one year. https://t.co/tOrhqmkFXL pic.twitter.com/UfYOluX1Bq — zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 18, 2023

… bringing the total to $33.6 trillion, more than the combined GDPs of China, Japan, Germany, and India.

And just to show you how terrifying it is about to get, BofA’s Michael Hartnett notes that “the CBO projects that US government debt will rise by $20 trillion next 10 years, or $5.2 billion every day or $218 million every hour!”

Some more context: total world debt (government, corporate & household) hit a record $227tn in Q1’23, double from $110tn in 2007 & $0.5tn in 1952…

As Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore concludes, the worsening metrics may “reignite debate about the US fiscal path amid heavy borrowing from Washington. That dynamic has already helped drive up bond yields, threatened the return of the so-called bond vigilantes and led Fitch Ratings to downgrade US government debt in August.“

Finally … the US treasury market was this close to collapse as recently as last week, and if it hadn’t been for some clever language and sleight-of-forward-guidance by the Treasury, in the latest TBAC statement, the endgame for US debt would now be in play. For now, however, it has been merely delayed.

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“Heavy Washington Borrowing” and “Skyrocketing” Interest Payments – Solved:

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8900 downloads)

Washington Republicans, tapping the ‘generosity’ brakes – have no alternative plan.

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2.9 Million Borrowers Pay Nothing In Biden’s ‘Most Generous Ever’ Student Loan Repayment Plan

ZeroHedge, Nov 09, 2023 | Authored by Bill Pan via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours) Excerpts:

Nearly 5.5 million federal student loan borrowers have enrolled in what the Biden administration calls “the most generous” repayment option ever offered, federal officials said on Wednesday.

The repayment plan, dubbed the Saving on Valuable Education (SAVE) plan, went into effect in August as part of President Joe Biden’s regulatory effort to dramatically reduce monthly obligations for student borrowers who aren’t earning very much, with many borrowers seeing their bills shrink to practically nothing.

According to the latest update from the U.S. Department of Education, about 2.9 million of the SAVE plan’s current enrollees have incomes that are low enough that they have monthly payments of $0.

The updated SAVE enrollment figure includes 1.8 million borrowers who have newly signed up for the program, as well as another 364,000 borrowers who were automatically switched to SAVE because they had already been in one of the existing income-driven repayment (IDR) plans that the Biden administration seeks to replace with SAVE….

Overall, borrowers are repaying $300 billion in federal student loans on the plan. That represents about 19 percent of the $1.6 trillion in outstanding debt from the federal student loan portfolio.

One of the biggest differences between the SAVE plan and IDR plans is that the amount of income incurring no charge, or protected income, rises from 150 percent above the federal poverty guidelines to 225 percent. Under the SAVE plan, payment also drops from 10 percent of the difference between earnings and protected income to 5 percent.

In practice, this means a single person who earns less than $32,800 a year is required to pay $0 a month. The same applies to a family of four that has an annual income less than $67,500.

On top of all that, under the SAVE plan, borrowers will see their remaining loan balances wiped out after 10 years of repayments. By comparison, it takes 20 or 25 years under IDR for borrowers to get their remaining debt canceled.

“I’m thrilled to see that in less than three months, nearly 5.5 million Americans in every community across the country are taking advantage of the SAVE Plan’s many benefits, from lower monthly payments to protection from runaway student loan interest,” U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona said in a statement on Monday, promising to “not rest” in the efforts to “make paying for college more affordable.”

Biden Plan Faces Republican Challenge – The SAVE plan is expected to cost billions in taxpayer dollars, a point Republican lawmakers have been emphasizing since the plan’s announcement.

Estimates vary widely, but one analysis by the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School suggests that the plan will cost about $475 billion in a span of 10 years.

“About $200 billion of that cost will come from payment reduction for the $1.64 trillion in loans already outstanding in 2023,” the analysis read.

According to the leading business school, the SAVE plan will be incentivizing college students to collectively borrow billions more dollars every year in the next decade due to the expectation that they may not have to repay the debt.

“The remainder of the budget cost, or about $275 billion, comes from reduced payments for about $1.03 trillion in new loans that we estimate will be extended over the next 10 years,” it added.

Citing Wharton’s estimates, a group of 17 Republican senators in September introduced a Congressional Review Act (CRA) resolution against the plan. A CRA resolution does not only nullify an existing rule but bans the federal agency from issuing the same rule again unless Congress later passes a new law authorizing the agency to do so.

“It’s incredibly unfair to those who never incurred student debt because they didn’t attend college in the first place or because they either worked their way through school or their family pinched pennies and planned for higher education,” said Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), ranking member of Senate’s education committee.

“Our resolution protects the 87 percent of Americans who don’t have student debt and will be forced to shoulder the burden of the President’s irresponsible and unfair policy,” he added.

Sen. Cassidy is joined by Sens. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.), Mike Braun (R-Ind.), John Cornyn (R-Texas), Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), Steve Daines (R-Mont.), Joni Ernst (R-Iowa), Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.), Ron Johnson (R-Wis.), James Lankford (R-Okla.), Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.), Roger Marshall (R-Kan.), James Risch (R-Idaho), Tim Scott (R-S.C.), John Thune (R-S.D.), and Thom Tillis (R-N.C.).

A companion CRA resolution was introduced by Rep. Lisa McClain (R-Mich.) in the lower chamber. Both chambers are expected to vote on the Republican-led resolutions in the coming weeks.

In defense of the repayment plan, Mr. Cardona implored lawmakers seeking to undo it to speak with borrowers who are “drowning in debt.”

“We’re hearing from the American people who are drowning in debt and can’t buy a home in the economy because of college costs,” he said during a Sept. 8 interview on CNN. “Those who are vehemently opposed to it have not spoken to their constituents who are drowning, who need support, who need to make higher education more accessible.”

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Student Loan Forgiveness – Round 2

The Democrats’ SAVE Plan will: 1) Help rescue several million college-educated Americans who are “drowning in debt,” 2) Buy votes of millions of college-educated Americans and extended family members for the 2024 election – and years to come; 3) Incentivize college students “to collectively borrow billions more dollars every year in the next decade due to the expectation that they may not have to repay the debt”; (4) Incentivize college students to remain below the income limits after graduation, in order to effectively dodge loan repayment obligations – which will, at the same time, qualify millions of these same college-educated Americans for additional entitlement benefits..

The Democrats’ SAVE Plan will also: 5) Provide NO BENEFITS for those college grads who have worked and saved to pay off their student loan debts; 6) Not only provide NO BENEFITS for young working-class Americans who never went to college, it will also ‘tax’ them to pay the bills on the SAVE Plan for current and future college students; 7) Add hundreds of billions of dollars over the coming 10 years to America’s booming annual deficits.

The Washington Republicans’ resolution against the SAVE Plan will: 1) DO NOTHING to help the millions of college-educated Americans who are “drowning in debt;” 2) DO LITTLE, IF ANYTHING to win votes in 2024 and beyond – and build ‘brand loyalty’ for Republicans; 3) DO NOTHING to reincentivize responsibility to borrowing agreements; 5) DO NOTHING to reduce dependence on government and shrink entitlement rolls; 6) PROVIDE NO TANGIBLE BENEFITS for the millions of college-grads / extended family members who did successfully pay back their student loans, and PROVIDE NO TANGIBLE BENEFITS for the hundreds of millions of working-class Americans who never went to college.

And finally…

The Washington Republicans’ resolution against the SAVE Plan will DO NOTHING to resolve America’s burgeoning debt crisis – in any meaningful way.

………………………….

Meanwhile...

Main Street America Republicans also have a plan.

Once unleashed, this plan will: 1) Provide dynamic tangible financial rewards, and massive debt-elimination benefits for all hard-working, tax-paying U.S. citizens who wish to participate; 2) Build ‘brand loyalty’ and attract voters for 2024 and years beyond; 3) Reduce dependence on government and restore economic liberty in America; 4) Generate $619.5 billion budget surpluses each of the first five years of activation; and 5) Pay for itself entirely over the succeeding 10-25 years.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8898 downloads)

Treasury Borrowing Running At Crisis-Era Levels

ZeroHedge, Nov 06, 2023 – Excerpts:

With the November quarterly refunding announcement now in the rearview mirror, we look to the Treasury’s borrowing outlook in historical context….

[According to] Deutsche Bank rate strategist Steven Zeng who on Friday published a chart that takes the numbers from the Treasury’s sources and uses table with adjustments to remove the fluctuations in the TGA…. the Treasury borrowed $1.01 trillion during Q2’23, with $756bn used for financing the deficit and QT, and $254bn was “saved” in the form of a higher cash balance.

In this light, Zeng notes that the Treasury’s expected borrowing for the current and the next quarter is actually larger than Q3’s, growing by about $10 billion per month. In fact, Treasury borrowing is now on par with levels during the 2020-2021 pandemic with both weaker fiscal positions and Fed QT are contributing factors.

As Zeng puts it, “with a growing view that the Fed may lengthen the duration of QT, and annual deficits projected at around $1.7- $1.8 trillion over the next few years, these issues are unlikely to go away soon.” At the same time, the widening mismatch between supply and demand for Treasuries could exacerbate the issue through increased debt interest expenses.

Goldman has some even more disturbing numbers: according to the bank’s rates strategist Praveen Korapaty, his outlook for Treasury supply in 2024 shows net notional issuance of $2.4 tr, which is inclusive of both bills and coupons. Gross coupon issuance would be much larger, roughly $4.2 tr, which includes issuance to cover maturing debt.

These concerns will remain in the forefront in 2024, with the TBAC highlighting this week the linkage between term premium and fiscal sustainability…

The thing about Wall Street is that if everyone agrees to stick their head in the sand and ignore the elephant in the room, it’s easy to do.

The problem is when someone notices the elephant. That’s what the TBAC did today pic.twitter.com/mJLbzvbpD0 | — zerohedge (@zerohedge) November 2, 2023

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It is time to kickoff America’s ‘elephant roundup’ ...

The Leviticus 25 Plan will generate, conservatively, $619.5 billion budget surpluses annually in its first five years of activation.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8623 downloads)

This “Unprecedented” Fiscal Doom Loop Is Getting Worse

ZeroHedge, Oct 24, 2023 | Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance

Excerpts:

Lawrence Lepard; US FISCAL DOOM LOOP GETS WORSE

In our view, the biggest elephant in the room is the US Fiscal Doom Loop. To refresh: US Government spending is out of control, and there appears to be very little political will to stop it. As the chart below shows, Government spending is up 14% yoy and tax receipts are down 7% yoy.  Fiscal year ended September 2023 is projected to have a deficit of over $2 Billion (or roughly 8% of GDP). In the past, deficits of this magnitude only materialized during significant downturns like the bursting of the Dotcom Bubble, the 2008 GFC and the COVID crisis. It is unprecedented to have deficits of this magnitude with the economy and employment being relatively strong.

One can only imagine where the deficit goes when the FED’s monetary jihad of rapid rate increases tips the economy over. Past economic downturns typically have increased the deficit/GDP ratio by 8-14%.  

So as the economy moves into recession in 2024 (as we believe), the US could be looking at deficits as high as 20% of GDP ($5 Trillion) if the economy slows dramatically. 

The reason we see it as a “doom loop” is that the current $33.5 Trillion of Federal Debt is continually costing more to service.¹  The Fed’s rapid increase of interest rates, and elimination of Quantitative Easing  (e.g., Fed buying Treasury bonds) has impacted US Treasury interest costs. Note below how interest payments have soared over the past two years.

Interest expense on the Federal Debt now exceeds our substantial annual national defense spending of $816B as well as every other category except Social Security and Medicare.

The Doom Loop occurs as higher interest costs drive higher deficits, forcing the Government to sell more bonds to finance the same. Ceteris paribus, more bond sales lead to higher interest rates which then increase the deficit further. Repeat until there is no market for the bonds. Of course, at that point the Fed is forced to step in and become the buyer of last resort for the bonds to keep the bond market functioning.

The fundamental issue is that without growing the money supply, there is not enough capital to support the inflated bubble valuations. When the Fed chose violence and went on a campaign of rapid rate increases (taking the Fed funds rate from 0.25% in 2021 to 5.25% today), coupled with the sale of some of its bond portfolio (Quantitative Tightening), it increased the cost and reduced the supply of capital necessary to support all financial markets. Government bond sales (which drive rates higher) are crowding out the debt markets. This is going to have to change or the financial markets as we know them are going to collapse. The only issue is the time scale.  The subject is addressed nicely in the chart below by Lyn Alden:

As you can see, when any person, company or government takes on massive leverage, the proceeds better generate productive economic outcomes to support the debt. (e.g., levering to invest in education or nuclear plants has a payback, but if the money is used to finance War, virtually nothing is gained/produced). Thus, to support an over-levered entity, more financing or money supply growth is required. When markets enter chaotic times, like in 2008-2013 and 2018-2021, the Fed is forced to be very aggressive in growing the monetary base via expansion of their balance sheet (money printing). This is what has taken the Fed Balance Sheet Assets from $800B to roughly $8T in the past 15 years. With debt continuing to grow rapidly we see no reason why this will not occur again, perhaps in short order.

The Fed’s recent retrenchment in the Base Money Supply (orange line in the chart above) began in February of 2022. There is a lag effect in terms of its impact on the economy. We believe the lag is now starting to bite hard and that is showing up in the numbers as we will detail below.

EVIDENCE OF ECONOMIC SLOWDOWN – Despite recent Wall Street and CNBC cheerleading, we believe the economy is beginning to roll over.

Post COVID, consumers regained confidence and went on a spending spree to maintain their lifestyles despite inflation and rising living costs. They did this by significantly increasing their borrowing on credit cards as seen in the chart below:

What is not shown on this chart is the average interest rate on these credit cards. Five years ago, the average interest rate on these cards was 13%. Today that rate is 22% – a significant burden for consumers carrying credit card balances. These higher costs have had an impact on consumer behavior and as the next chart shows credit card spending dropped sharply in September.

And as the following chart shows, total consumer spending has been dropping significantly year over year in 2023, and the trend is getting worse.

Further, signs of an imminent recession include the level of bank credit growth. The last time it was this negative was in the 2008 GFC. Negative bank credit growth is a very reliable recession indicator.

We believe the economy is very sick. The doctored employment figures are not telling the true story.

___________________________________

America needs a dynamic new, ‘outside-the-box’ resolution to this burgeoning economic crisis, a debt-busting behemoth economic acceleration plan.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is loaded up and ready to launch.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8623 downloads)

Washington Democrats have an economic plan: Socialism expansion, debase the Dollar, migrate to MMT economics, roll the U.S. economic system into the coming ‘Central Bank Digital Currency’ new world order, and subvert the individual rights and liberties of all Americans.

Washington Republicans have ‘no credible plan’ … other than to lightly ‘tap the brakes’ on the Democrats’ broader socialization mission and goals.

Washington Republicans have priceless opportunity at this very moment to get America’s exploding deficits back under control, solve the ongoing the budget battles / government shutdown deadlines, restore economic liberty, and get America back on track. Shamefully… they have no plan.

Congress Has 5 Days To Avert A Shutdown | Down to the wire once again…  Nov 13, 2023 – ZeroHedge

………..

No Surprise, House Speaker Johnson Proposes Same Plan as McCarthy | There are likely big surprises elsewhere, but there is no surprise in this corner regarding Johnson’s plans to keep the government running.  Nov 13, 2023 – ZeroHedge

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The Federal Reserve also has no plan to stabilize the financial system, avert a looming Treasury auction crisis, insure long-term strength and stability for the U.S. Dollar, and reignite economic growth.

The Fed Has No Plan, And Is Just Hoping For The Best | There is no long-term thinking here about building a sound economy, fostering investment, or helping the working man save for retirement. The Fed’s concern is keeping up appearances…   Nov 12, 2023 – ZeroHedge

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There’s A “Crisis Brewing”: Powell & Piss-Poor Auction Spark Chaos In Credit Markets, Crypto Soars | Nov 9, 2023 – “…this is a shitshow, liquidity is disastrous and the auction is the canary in the coalmine…” – ZeroHedge

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Washington Republicans are once again playing out a ‘losing hand’ with voters in this ongoing game of budget roulette. 

Washington Republicans wasting a golden opportunity, a once in a generation moment, to present a dynamic new winning plan for America – one that would put an end to these revolving-door debt ceiling impasses once and for all – and deliver a powerful debt-elimination strategy across all sectors of the U.S. economy, with major financial security gains for working Americans.  A plan that will strengthen America’s long-term national security interests.

Main Street America Republicans have just such a plan – loaded up and ready to launch.

The Leviticus 25 Plan economic acceleration plan that will provide a dynamic ‘recharge’ to the U.S. economy, generate meaningful budget surpluses, reestablish citizen-centered healthcare, and restore economic liberty in America. 

It will “unleash a new wave of prosperity” in America.

The Leviticus 25 Plan will generate $619 billion federal budget surpluses for the initial 5 years of activation (2024-2028), and completely pay for itself over the succeeding 10-15 years.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a powerful economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America 2023

Economic Scoring links:

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan – 2024 Generates $619.5 billion Federal Budget Surpluses (2024-2028) Part 1: Overview, Deficit Projection

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $619.5 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2024-2028). Part 2: Federal Income Tax Recapture; Economic Security / Means-Tested Welfare Recapture.

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $619.5 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2024-2028). Part 3: Medicaid, Medicare, VA, TRICARE, FEHB, SSDI Recapture.

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $619.5 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2024-2028). Part 4: Interest Expense Recapture, Totals Summary

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The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America 2024

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8479 downloads)

Website:  https://leviticus25plan.org/

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Preview 1:

The Leviticus 25 Plan provides a $90,000 credit extension, direct from the Federal Reserve, to every participating U.S. citizen:  $60,000 into a Family Account (FA) and $30,000 into a Medical Savings Account (MSA).

Example:  Qualifying family of four would receive $240,000 in their FA, and $120,000 in their MSA.

Primary goals:  Massive debt elimination at family level: mortgage debt, consumer debt, student loan debt.  Federal budget surpluses.

Eligibility:  U.S. Citizen.  Job history, credit history requirement (similar to traditional credit checks for bank loans).  Clean recent drug history.  Clean crime history.

Requirements:  Forego all federal and state tax refunds for 5-year period.

Forego Economic Security and selected means-tested welfare benefits – for minimum 5-year period.

Forego enhanced federal rental forbearance/assistance – for minimum 5-year period.

Forego SSI and SSDI for minimum 5-year period.

New $6,000 deductible on primary care access to: Medicare, Medicaid, VA, TRICARE, FEHB – for minimum 5-year period.

The Plan assumes that the elite-wealthy will not participate, because their refunds are too valuable to give up over the requisite 5-year period.

The Plan also assumes that many who heavily depend on Economic Security and social welfare benefits will also choose not to participate, because the overriding value of those benefits, vs foregoing them, over the 5-year period.

Preview 2:

The Leviticus 25 Plan grants the same direct access to liquidity, through a Fed-based Citizens Credit Facility, similar to the credit facilities that were created by the Fed to transfuse trillions of dollars in direct transfers and credit extensions to Wall Street’s major banks, credit agencies and insurers during the great financial crisis. 

The following facilities were created and activated by the Fed for this massive Wall Street bail out operation: Term Auction Facility (TAF), Primary Dealer Credit Facility (PDCF), Term Securities Lending Facility (TSLF), currency swap agreements with several foreign central banks,  Commercial Paper Funding Facility (CPFF), Asset-Backed Commercial Paper Money Market Mutual Fund Liquidity Facility (AMLF), Money Market Investor Funding Facility (MMIFF), and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF), and access to the Fed’s Discount Window.

Additional perspective:  SIGTARP, the oversight agency of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP), in its July 2009 report, vetted by Treasury, noted that the U.S. Government’s “Total Potential Support Related to Crisis” (page 138) amounted to $23.7 trillion. While this figure represents a backstop commitment, not a measure of total potential loss, it is nonetheless an astounding degree of support, in the form of liquidity infusions, credit extensions and guarantees, various other forms of assistance for financial institutions and other business entities affected by the financial crisis.

Preview 3:

The Leviticus 25 Plan website has been accessed on one or more occasions by the following financial enterprises/agencies:  JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, State Street, Merrill Lynch, AIG, Barclays Plc, Royal Bank of Scotland, Deutsche Bank, Société Générale S.A, UBS AG, Credit Suisse, BNP Paribas, The U.S. Department of Treasury, General Accountability Office (GAO), The European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of England (BOE), Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of Canada, Bank of Montreal, Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

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The General Accountability Office has stated that America’s ongoing debt crisis is unsustainable.

It is time for America to institute a bold, new plan.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is loaded up and ready to launch.  The ‘golden moment’ for Republicans has arrived.

The $650 billion outlay of IMF IOUs backed by the U.S. Treasury—called special drawing rights—sent money to Moscow [$17 billion] while the world watched Mr. Biden abandon Bagram Air Base to the Taliban. Iran gained access to about $4.5 billion through the IMF deal, and China had a windfall of $40 billion.

According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), “the United States contributes $117 billion to the IMF quota (17.46%). In addition, the United States has contributed $44 billion to funds at the IMF that supplement quota resources.” Mar 8, 2022

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WSJ: No More IMF Subsidies for Dictators

Biden and Yellen pushed to give Russia $17 billion while troops gathered on Ukraine’s border.

By John Kennedy | WSJ, March 22, 2022 – Excerpts:

U.S. European Command warned a year ago that a crisis could be imminent in Ukraine. Vladimir Putin had set up more than 100,000 members of his military to breathe down Ukraine’s neck—the biggest mobilization since Russia annexed Crimea in 2014. As Mr. Putin prepared to invade a sovereign democracy, the Biden administration continued pushing for more than $17 billion in International Monetary Fund allocations for Moscow.

President Biden and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen ultimately got what they wanted in August, when the IMF doled out more money in one general allocation than ever before. The $650 billion outlay of IMF IOUs backed by the U.S. Treasury—called special drawing rights—sent money to Moscow while the world watched Mr. Biden abandon Bagram Air Base to the Taliban. Iran gained access to about $4.5 billion through the IMF deal, and China had a windfall of $40 billion.

In this case, there were no sanctions to evade because the Biden administration simply handed Vladimir Putin, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Xi Jinping the money. The IMF special drawing rights function as subsidies, since countries awarded these tokens can exchange them for hard currency like dollars and euros on demand without having to repay the principal. Immediately after the White House finalized these subsidies, Russia’s foreign reserves hit a new high.…

The White House’s most egregious move may be yet to come. The Biden administration purposefully structured the 2021 allocation as a down payment on another flood of special drawing rights this year, totaling $350 billion. Some Democrats asked Ms. Yellen in November to back a tranche of about $2 trillion. In either case, Treasury would again lay tens of billions of dollars at the feet of dictators and terror states. But more free money won’t beget better behavior.

As the new axis of evil grew richer last fall, it grew markedly more belligerent. Russia invaded Ukraine, Iran became more incorrigible in its nuclear-deal demands, and China signaled recently it believes its claim to Taiwan is even stronger than Russia thinks it has to Ukraine.

Mr. Biden and Ms. Yellen can’t say they weren’t warned. I started imploring Ms. Yellen not to subsidize our enemies in the name of Covid relief last March, as did the Journal’s editorial board.

The Biden administration also can’t claim it was forced into the deal by the IMF, given that the U.S. has the largest voting share in the fund. The allocation that lined the pockets of Messrs. Putin and Xi had to have U.S. approval because the world’s largest economy can veto major IMF decisions.

Treasury can’t claim it had no other options. The IMF could have avoided spending the bulk of the $650 billion general allocation on dictators and countries that didn’t need the aid by making the special allocation for the poorest nations. Again, these pages pointed out that Mr. Biden’s objection to a tailored approach was that it would require him to submit to Congress—which he seems generally reluctant to do.

The White House’s eyes were wide open, and its hands weren’t tied. Team Biden knew Mr. Putin was mobilizing against Ukraine and greenlit $17 billion for Russia anyway, while slowing military aid for Ukraine.

China and Iran have been taking notes at every turn. Mr. Biden’s end-run around Congress left rogue leaders emboldened and enriched. His task now is to get America out of Iran-deal negotiations, force Russia out of Ukraine, and keep China out of Taiwan.

He needs to demonstrate resolve. He can start by disavowing future IMF allocations that would pour money into Russia, China, Iran and their like. Let’s shut off the IMF spigot to communists and terrorists and make sure it stays shut.

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WSJ:  IMF Seeks to Allay Doubts Following Data-Rigging Scandal, Move Forward With New Agenda

By Josh Zumbrun | WSJ, Oct. 14, 2021 – Excerpts

Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, was cleared by the organization’s board for her role in a World Bank report that was manipulated to benefit China— just one of the recent challenges before the IMF.

Following a data-rigging scandal that engulfed its managing director, the International Monetary Fund is working to regain its footing in international financial markets while it works to balance the competing interests of its two main backers, the U.S. and China.

The IMF board cleared the group’s leader Kristalina Georgieva earlier this week for her role in a World Bank report that was manipulated to benefit China, but the scandal remains an active issue for the U.S. Treasury and some American lawmakers. “If the allegations are true that China can intimidate objective economic analysis to get its desired outcomes, that’s concerning,” said Sen. Jim Risch of Idaho, the ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee….

Private investors, new lending facilities of the Federal Reserve, and the rise of China as a lender to other countries have all supplanted some traditional IMF functions. That leaves the organization with a diminished role in global finance and growing skepticism from many in Washington about its future.

The rise of China as a lender presents a particular conundrum. Many U.S. officials have grown concerned that IMF programs can ultimately benefit China. Such concerns emerged clearly when in 2018 Pakistan came to the IMF seeking a bailout, partially because it had taken on too much debt for projects with China’s Belt and Road Initiative. China’s external lending and U.S. concerns have only grown since then. Then-Secretary of State Mike Pompeo criticized the IMF at the time, insisting IMF funds shouldn’t be used to bail out China.

During recent financial upheavals, it was the U.S. Federal Reserve that flooded the global financial system with hundreds of billions of dollars of central-bank liquidity swaps. The Fed provided funds directly to many emerging markets, traditionally the IMF’s domain.…

Nearly 100 countries sought loans. Total IMF lending climbed from $74 billion in 2019 to as high as $106 billion at the end of 2020. Loans made on concessional, or zero-interest, terms climbed from $7 billion to $14 billion. The IMF committed at this week’s meeting to boost such lending further.…

[During the pandemic] Nearly 100 countries sought loans. Total IMF lending climbed from $74 billion in 2019 to as high as $106 billion at the end of 2020. Loans made on concessional, or zero-interest, terms climbed from $7 billion to $14 billion. The IMF committed at this week’s meeting to boost such lending further….

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Again… President Joe Biden along with Janet Yellen ‘greenlit’ the “$650 billion outlay of IMF IOUs backed by the U.S. Treasury—called special drawing rights—sent money to Moscow while the world watched Mr. Biden abandon Bagram Air Base to the Taliban. Iran gained access to about $4.5 billion through the IMF deal, and China had a windfall of $40 billion.

U.S. tax-payer dollars have been flowing freely, through the IMF, to America’s avowed enemies… to provide liquidity and assist them ‘in their time of need.’

And... “During recent financial upheavals, it was the U.S. Federal Reserve that flooded the global financial system with hundreds of billions of dollars of central-bank liquidity swaps.”

There is no better time than right now to ramp up Federal Reserve ‘liquidity flows’ directly to hard-working, tax-paying U.S. citizens to clean up America’s own debt-saturated financial quagmire.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8284 downloads)

“Monetary Debasement” is Highly Likely

ZeroHedge, Oct 26, 2023 – Submitted by QTR’s Fringe Finance – Excerpts:

“….we strongly believe that given the system of Governments and Central Banks that we live under that “monetary debasement” is highly likely.  That is the good news.  The bad news is getting the timing right is tough, but when it does happen, we are not talking about small upside. The upside is very outsized.  

We think that it is important to understand how front end weighted the US Federal Debt has become.  This means that the Federal interest expense is very sensitive to the short term interest rate. The next two charts help us to understand this more clearly. 

First, see the chart below.   Note how half of the debt will need to be rolled over within the next 3 years.  

Most of this debt was issued with interest rates that are way below today’s level. 

Then consider the following chart which shows that presently the US Federal Government is paying 2.49% on average on its debt burden.  Consider that US Federal Interest expense is running at a $970B annual rate (see Parts 1 and 2 of this letter).

Further, consider that US Bond interest rates now range between 4.6% and 5.4%, or nearly twice the average that is being paid now.  As the bonds above mature they will need to be rolled over at higher rates.  Total US Federal Debt is $35.5T but it is growing at $2-3T per year (conservatively). 

Let’s say the average interest rate becomes 4.6% over the next few years and deficits run at $2.5T per year.  This means that in two years US Federal interest expense will be $1.9T, or more than double today’s run rate.  All else equal we would add another $1 Trillion to the deficit.  This helps to explain why we are in a debt doom loop.“

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America needs a powerhouse new economic acceleration plan to stop the deluge…

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8037 downloads)

America is getting buried in debt – and an accelerating rate.

Washington Democrats and their Republican colleagues have no credible plan to change the dynamic.

Washington has America on track for full-scale debasement of the U.S. Dollar – and economic chaos.

Main Street America Republicans do have a plan, and it is a bold one. Ready to launch.

US To Borrow $1.5 Trillion In Debt This & Next Quarter, After Borrowing A Massive $1 Trillion Last Quarter

ZeroHedge, Oct 30, 2023 – After borrowing $1 trillion in calendar Q3, the US is preparing to borrow another $1.5 trillion in calendar Q4 ’23 and Q1 ’24, or a total of $2.5 trillion, and that’s only for 9 months of the calendar year…

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Marketable US Treasury Debt to Explode by $2.85 Trillion in the 10 Months from End of Debt Ceiling to March 31, 2024

Wolff Street, Oct 30, 2023 – Including $1.56 trillion in Q4 2023 & Q1 2024 combined. Government has gone nuts.

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The Leviticus 25 Plan will provide a dynamic ‘recharge’ to the U.S. economy, generate meaningful budget surpluses, protect and strengthen the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar, reestablish citizen-centered healthcare, and restore economic liberty in America. 

It will “unleash a new wave of prosperity” in America.

The Leviticus 25 Plan will generate $619 billion federal budget surpluses for the initial 5 years of activation (2024-2028), and completely pay for itself over the succeeding 10-15 years.

The Leviticus 25 Plan is a dynamic economic initiative providing direct liquidity benefits for American families, while at the same time scaling back the role of government in managing and controlling the affairs of citizens.  It is a comprehensive plan with long-term economic and social benefits for citizens and government.

The inspiration for this plan is based upon Biblical principles set forth in the Book of Leviticus, principles tendering direct economic liberties to the people.

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America 2024

Economic Scoring links:

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan – 2024 Generates $619.5 billion Federal Budget Surpluses (2024-2028) Part 1: Overview, Deficit Projection

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $619.5 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2024-2028). Part 2: Federal Income Tax Recapture; Economic Security / Means-Tested Welfare Recapture.

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $619.5 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2024-2028). Part 3: Medicaid, Medicare, VA, TRICARE, FEHB, SSDI Recapture.

·    The Leviticus 25 Plan Generates $619.5 Billion Federal Budget Surpluses Annually (2024-2028). Part 4: Interest Expense Recapture, Totals Summary

The Leviticus 25 Plan – An Economic Acceleration Plan for America

$90,000 per U.S. citizen – Leviticus 25 Plan 2023 (8035 downloads)